Large Hadron Collider is back to change our understanding of the universe... again

Gearing up for another run Adam Warzawa/EPA

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) has just begun smashing particles together at higher energies than ever before. This marks the start of the second run of the world’s largest physics experiment, the huge particle accelerator that sits beneath the Alps and in 2012 was used to prove the existence of the Higgs boson.

Now, after more than two years' work upgrading the accelerator systems and the particle detectors (and more years of preparation before that), the team at research group CERN are ready to start using the LHC to answer more questions about how the universe works.

The goal is to explain the missing pieces in our understanding of fundamental physics. One example is the nature of the so-called dark matter that scientists say we can’t see directly but that dominates the universe. Another is the imbalance between matter and antimatter in the present-day universe. Our current theories suggest there would have been almost exactly equal amounts of matter and antimatter in the early universe. But somehow the antimatter decayed, allowing the universe that we know made entirely of matter to emerge.

Physicists have proposed a range of theories, such as “supersymmetry”, to answer these questions and that also predict the existence of new particles and subtle changes to the behaviour of known particles. By colliding particles at energies measured at 13 teraelectronvolts, researchers may also find evidence of the hidden extra dimensions that feature in many theories. Or it could show that the Higgs boson, the particle associated with giving mass to the other particles that make up matter, is one of a whole family of related particles.

Energy levels up M Brice/CERN

The significance of almost doubling the energy at which particles are fired around the LHC is that the resulting collisions should produce new particles that were inaccessible before. Rarer processes should also become more frequent and so easier to distinguish from the approximately 600m “ordinary” collisions that occur in each experiment each second. And the rate at which Higgs bosons are produced should increase, allowing researchers to determine their true nature.

There are several different experiments scheduled for the higher-energy LHC. My team at the University of Lancaster is part of the ATLAS experiment and we will be looking studying how the Higgs boson decays into a particle called the tau, a heavier version of the electron. We will be seeing if the decay exhibits what is called CP violation, a process that distinguishes between matter and antimatter and might help explain the matter-antimatter imbalance.

The improvements to the ATLAS detector for measuring the paths of the particles produced by collisions and the points where they decay mean we in Lancaster will be able to make really precise measurements of CP violation and particle lifetimes in more conventional particles. The extremely large samples of the relevant decays will also contribute to the high precision required to see the influence of any new physics effects such as supersymmetry.

Smashing job CMS/CERN

We will also be looking for other new particles, particularly those that decay into two “jets” of ordinary particles. This is really important for understanding how often you get double collisions between the particles inside the protons. The energy signature from these double collisions can mimic some of the effects predicted by new theories. So we need to understand the collisions before we can claim them as evidence for those theories.

The two year period during which the LHC was offline was an intensely busy time for the accelerator and detector teams. But the work will now intensify at major analysis centres such as Lancaster to extract the relevant results from the large volumes of data the LHC is producing. For the young physicists doing their PhD studies or in their first research positions and the older hands directing them, this is the most exciting time when the work all comes together.

What will be found is unknown – and an unexpected finding could transform our whole programme of work. Whatever nature reveals, it will be interesting and potentially could profoundly change our view of the fundamental workings of the universe.

AdBlock Plus won't bring down the web, but the bell is tolling for current business models

Your ad here - only sometimes it isn't. your ad here by Bloomua/shutterstock.com

The recent court ruling in Germany that determined AdBlock Plus is legal is part of a long-running war of wits between advertisers and the established websites that use them and software developers who’d rather see an ad-free internet.

Despite claims of a “customised browsing experience” that many sites claim to offer in their cookie policy statement there’s really very little personalisation of the websites we browse, irrespective of whether we are on a laptop, tablet or mobile. Programmers know the weakness of these claims well enough and can easily write code that removes web advertisements from the pages for a cleaner, less distracting read.

But while removing ads may please consumers, it’s to the detriment of free websites – the vast majority of the web, in fact – that rely on advertising revenue. There are two business models on the web, either advertising or subscription-based. The German court decision effectively finds in favour of subscription over advertising.

Who pays, and how?

In some European jurisdictions hacking into a website, such as The Sun newspaper, has resulted in a prison sentence. While the work of hacking groups such as Lulzsec and Anonymous is politically motivated it seems quite implausible that any court anywhere would condone software that circumvented paywalls used by subscription websites. In a rather curious twist, two years ago observer.com (home of the New York Observer) website published an article explaining how to avoid the paywall of (its rival) the New York Times. But as observer.com was at the time also a subscription-based site, many of techniques the article described could be employed against its own site.

Another model is the freemium approach, which has become the dominant trend in the market for apps for mobile devices. The concept of combining free downloads with paid-for additions is a variant on earlier software business models including shareware and try-before-you-buy schemes. But the number of people making purchases through this model only amount to 2% of the total number who download the free app.

Combined with figures that suggest many apps barely make 1,000 downloads in their first year, that means barely 20 people might be taking up the premium part of the freemium offer. Yet because a small number of apps become massively successful, such as Angry Birds with revenues in excess of £100m annually, this encourages developers to continue trying their luck at the perverse lottery of the freemium business model.

Follow the money

However, the German court’s decision giving ad-blocking software legitimacy may ultimately be of little consequence given the untapped market for online advertising. As mobile and internet use continues to grow worldwide many advertisers remain wedded to traditional media. The risk-aversion of traditional advertisers creates a $US50 billion opportunity for online media. If advertisers can be convinced to balance the proportion of time spent using online media and the proportion of advertising directed at them, then the prospects for online and mobile advertising are rosy. As one free browser for mobile and tablets among many, or as a browser plug-in, AdBlock Plus is not going to make a major dent in the advertising business model of large websites with multinational brand advertising.

A new approach?

What’s more, in the background AdBlock Plus has very quietly introduced a different advertising approach. By allowing “non-intrusive” ads that meet AdBlock Plus’s criteria for acceptability – in effect, a throwback to online advertising circa 1999 – and charging “larger properties” in order to be whitelisted (and their ads not blocked), its free software relies upon a sponsorship or patronage business model.

Patronage of course isn’t new, but it does introduce reciprocal obligations and expectations on AdBlock Plus. The nature of ad acceptability is prescriptively defined but also continuously evolving. The site claims this is primarily to improve user experience, but it’s impossible to ask for who else the list might be improved without finding oneself thinking of the “larger properties” the firm already deals with to draw up its whitelist.

Companies operating on the web, in social media, online games and the internet in general desperately require innovations that can support them while reflecting the current consumer preference for free. Advertising-based business models need to capitalise on the promise of cross-device advertising as part of the move towards a truly customised user experience.

However, it’s clear that over the longer term the internet needs entirely new business models – and with or without the tacit support of the German courts, the patronage model of AdBlock Plus is not a prime candidate.

To avoid militarising the internet, cyberspace needs written rules agreed by all

There needs to be rules that govern what takes place in the cloud as there are for what occurs on the ground. David James Paquin

In the world of foreign affairs, there are written or unwritten rules – behavioural norms – under which states operate. But there is little, if any, comparable set of structures governing actions taken in cyberspace. As this becomes a larger and more important part of life and the security implications that arise, this poses a problem.

The US government recently released its strategy for cyberspace, the fourth update since 2010. Britain did the same in 2011 and again in 2013. The aim of the documents aim is to outline the consequences of foreign actions taken in cyberspace in order to provide a deterrent to their use. The problem is, that in order to promote an international norm that could be agreed upon, any global strategy should really be drawn up by a state that hasn’t already launched cyber-attacks.

For example, the US strategy document lists China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as its prime digital enemies. The research that Ryan C Maness at Northeastern University and I undertook for our book on cyberwarfare found 20 attacks by China on the US from 2001-2011, three by Russia, one by Iran, and three by North Korea. After 2011, there have been Russian intrusions into the White House and Department of State, Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia in 2012, and North Korea’s attack on Sony in 2014.

What is needed is a set of understood norms that specify the consequences of offensive actions taken in cyberspace. According to the US strategy, around 2% of the cyber attacks listed would invite a military response since they are of a significantly offensive nature, rather than merely inconveniences. Unfortunately, these statements alone would not be a deterrent. A military response may be an option for the US, but ultimately such threats are deemed empty without a demonstrated commitment to carry them out.

This is the classic nuclear dilemma covered so well in Dr Strangelove. How could any nation be sure another would commit to retribution in a given situation? Consequences are not a sure thing – as Syria discovered with the US’s moving “red line” in relation to chemical weapons. Suggesting that the evidence was not at all definitive, the US declined to launch an attack because it cannot be sure that Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, condoned the attacks.

Cyber attacks prompt even deeper questions, as attribution is very difficult – and, even then, knowing who is responsible is of limited value when launching a conventional strike. Just because certain actors within a country might be responsible for an attack does not mean that the nation should be held accountable and punished.

Everybody needs rules of engagement. digitalgamemuseum, CC BY

A proper global cybersecurity strategy would need to move beyond consequences and threats towards a greater consideration of norms that could provide a basis for a collective response to the violation of agreed rules. These could include the limitation of physical damage, an agreement that civilians and civilian infrastructure are off-limits and to keep critical infrastructure such as power or water supply out of bounds in order to avoid the potential for humanitarian disasters.

But it’s tough for the US to call for military responses to cyber attacks when it is itself linked to nine such attacks between 2001-2011, including deploying the Stuxnet malware on Iran, the most advanced attack to date – not to mention all the revelations of the Snowden files. Other European nations can play a role here: with little connection to cyber-attacks, they could take a hand in outlining the future rules of the game without being hamstrung by obvious claims of hypocrisy and hidden agendas.

Cyberspace is the natural domain of research, education, social interaction and commerce. As far as is possible it needs to avoid militarisation. A just and proper strategy for cyberspace cannot be left to the aggressors or the victims to define – it is in the interest of all that every nation state contributes their voices.

How frogs and fish can help us learn to freeze humans

He who shoots first gets frozen longest. lrosa, CC BY-SA

From Star Wars to Futurama to Alien, the idea that humans can be frozen in time in order to be awoken later is a well-established sci-fi trope. While stopping biological time or inducing long-term hibernation is still as far off as the long-distance space travel that it’s associated with in fiction, we can freeze and store cells, tissues and organs, and this is of huge scientific and medical importance.

For example, one of the contributing factors to the shortage of donor organs for transplantation is the challenge of transporting them to the recipient before they have degraded too much. There are also often shortages of blood and plasma, which are needed for nearly all trauma emergencies and routine operations. This need is complicated by their short storage life: up to 42 days for red blood cells, but only eight days for platelets. links

Conceptually this is similar to the challenges faced in the frozen food industry: how to maintain even distribution year round, despite uneven supply. Recent advances in stem cell biology and regenerative medicine, along with an ageing population, means the need to store and transport cells and tissue is more important than ever. And much of this comes down to understanding what two thirds of our body is comprised of: water.

Fresh frozen

Back in the 1950s Polge and Lovelock managed to cryopreserve (freeze) sperm cells, which when thawed could be used to fertilise eggs. This was a remarkable achievement and forms the basis for today’s IVF treatments and animal farming industries.

Their achievement was overcoming a key problem with freezing cells (or tissue) in that ice tends to form crystals. In fact, water and ice are rather unique. We all know from school that solids are denser than liquids, which in turn are denser than gases – yet icebergs float. This highlights how ice crystals occupy more space (and therefore have a lower density) than water. This can be lethal when cells are frozen due to the effects of expansion, but also because it concentrates the salt in our cells. To avoid this problem scientists have developed several solutions.

One is to add organic solvents which change the behaviour of water, so that it forms a sort of glass-like substance rather than a crystal, reducing the amount of damage freezing causes. Another is to change the rate of freezing of the cells so as to allow them to dehydrate, which lowers the water content and so the extent of expansion. The success of these methods is seen in the many thousands of successful births from frozen embryos.

Nature’s antifreeze

Despite this success, there are many cells and tissues that cannot be frozen, and there would be a clear benefit to reduce the amount of organic solvents added to the cells. Ideally this would be removed altogether before transplantation. So many researchers are now looking to nature for inspiration: several frog species, for example, can survive being frozen solid by producing high concentrations of sugar to protect their cells.

My interest lies in the function of the so called antifreeze glycoproteins that enable fish in the Arctic Ocean to survive in subzero water temperatures.

One of the properties of these proteins is that they not only lower the freezing temperature of water (just as antifreeze for your car does), but they also stop the growth of any ice crystals which form in the fish (or enter it, such as through the gills). The growth of ice crystals during thawing of cryopreserved cells is a huge problem contributing to the failure of many attempts at freezing. So it seems obvious that adding antifreeze proteins could improve this cryopreservation process.

This is of huge importance and has all sorts of unlikely applications. For example, our tongues can detect crystals around 50 microns in size, so the ice cream industry would like to ensure that all ice is smaller than this to improve texture (and there has been a huge amount of research into additives, known as ice structuring proteins, to achieve this).

But as is often the case, there is a problem. Antifreeze proteins are expensive and not easy to chemically synthesize. To address this my research team and others have developed synthetic polymers – water soluble plastics – which can perform the same function as antifreeze proteins. Remarkably, when we add these to blood cells we can see a clear improvement in their cryopreservation which we hope will one day help us to improve the storage of a huge range of cell types.

Next time you add an ice cube to your drink and it floats to the top, think about how remarkable that is. Also consider how remarkable it is that life can flourish in sub-zero temperatures, when we don hats and coats once the days get shorter. By appreciating these facts, we can appreciate the wonder of evolution, and also ask interesting scientific questions which one day might help us save lives or one day, store ourselves. Though, at the moment, that is still closer to science fiction than science fact.

Why we fell out of love with algorithms inspired by nature

Strictly for the birds? muratart

While computers are poor at creativity, they are adept at crunching through vast numbers of solutions to modern problems where there are numerous complex variables at play. Take the question of finding the best delivery plan for a distribution company – where best to begin? How many vehicles? Which stretches of road need to be avoided at which times? If you want to get close to a sensible answer, you need to ask a computer.

This is just one of millions of problems that are addressed by the field of metaheuristics, which is about developing algorithms that help you come up with the best possible answer in any situation where there are a large number of possible solutions.

It could be about devising job rosters that are as fair as possible. It could be about tuning the design of an engine or building to minimise energy or fuel usage. It could be about putting together the most economic flight schedule for an airport. For any discipline where a measure of quality can be provided, vast quantities of numbers have probably been crunched.

Modern Life is Toughish Roubart

The solutions are far from perfect, however. Even for the fastest computers currently available, these problems are often challenging due to their sheer size. Exhaustively checking every possibility would typically take longer than the universe has existed.

Coming up with the perfect solutions to these kinds of problems is one of most high-profile conundrums for mathematics, known as the p=np question. While we wait for it to be solved, we have focused on developing algorithms that come up with solutions that are approximately the best instead.

Natural inspiration

Among the best known types of tools to come up with these approximate answers are called evolutionary algorithms (fully explained here). They take this name from the fact that they draw on the same narrative as Darwin’s theory of evolution: that of a “population” of individuals competing, the fittest “parents” then producing “offspring” which form the next generation, so that the population becomes gradually “fitter” over time.

To see how this works in practice, take chemotherapy treatment. For every kind of cancer, the problem for oncologists is what dosage and frequency of each drug produces the best balance between eradicating the cancer and minimising the side-effects.

An evolutionary algorithm would start by randomly generating a few treatment regimes (the population). It would predict the resulting tumour size and side-effects after each treatment, then estimate the overall quality (fitness) of each regime. Pairs of regimes (parents) make a new regime (offspring) by choosing a proportion of the drug levels from each parent. This is repeated, the offspring replacing parents, until a good solution is found.

Pioneer: Alan Turing

This is not about seeking to simulate biology as such. It is about taking how nature tackles problems as inspiration for how computers should solve problems. Having drawn on this since the days of Alan Turing, computer scientists have taken the ball and run with it. They have looked at how nature operates in specific situations, such as flocks of birds or ant colonies, and applied the same rules to their algorithms.

These have produced approaches to specific problems that have been remarkably effective, spanning engineering, medicine, economics, marketing, genetics, art, robotics, social sciences, physics and chemistry.

The problem

Over the past couple of decades, the research literature has filled up with endless new nature-based metaphors for algorithms. You can find algorithms based on the behaviour of cuckoos, bees, bats, cats, wolves, galaxy formation and black holes. Sometimes the metaphors even go beyond nature: musical composition, fireworks and even colonisation by imperial nations.

Much of this coincided with an old misconception that it was possible to develop one tool that can solve all these complex problems better than all the others. The way to get published in this field has been to show that your new algorithm solves a few test problems, making a case that yours could be the optimum tool that everyone has been looking for. But the reality is that while each new tool can be shown to perform well in specific cases, this Holy Grail doesn’t exist.

All researchers have been doing is wasting time on developing new approaches that are probably little better than existing ones. And the language of each metaphor then invades the literature, distracting people from using the already sufficiently expressive terminology of mathematics and, above all, working together to find the best way forward.

Where next?

The backlash has begun: the Journal of Heuristics has revised its editorial policy to address this issue. Major figures in the field are calling for new approaches to be written in “metaphor-free language”.

Yet this doesn’t mean that nature-inspired algorithms are going to decline – not while arriving at approximate solutions to our complex modern problems is still the best that we can do. Instead the focus is shifting towards improving our understanding of how existing approaches work and improving their scientific value.

One theme is about devoting more time to looking at the relationships between the variables and solution quality in a given problem. In the past we have tended to know that they are connected but haven’t tried to work out how. Remedying this should help us refine the tools that have already been developed so that they can search all the possible solutions to a problem in a more intelligent way.

Maths is back. Gleraryhir

Another theme has been about combining algorithms with classical mathematics to help reach solutions that we can be more confident are better than what we have had in the past. We are also looking at introducing rules from software engineering known as formal design patterns, which essentially set down prescribed ways of solving a given problem to stop people constantly trying to come up with radical alternatives.

All this work represents a move in the right direction. Perhaps a retreat from all the bats and the bees will make the research area harder to communicate to the public. But it can only be good for science that good old-fashioned computer science and mathematics are making a comeback. If it means that we build better houses, develop better cancer treatments, improve our airline scheduling and so forth, it will have been worth the effort.

The fall of Silk Road isn't the end for anonymous marketplaces, Tor or bitcoin

Silk Road, gone but not forgotten. FBI

Ross Ulbricht, aka the “Dread Pirate Roberts”, has been sentenced to life in prison without parole by a Manhattan Federal Court for masterminding the Silk Road anonymous online illegal marketplace. Ulbricht was labelled a drug dealer and criminal profiteer, and Judge Forrest was unequivocal in stating that “a message must be sent out that no one is above the law”.

The Silk Road was an online marketplace designed to allow users to conduct illegal business anonymously beyond the reach of law enforcement. It operated like an eBay for illegal goods, complete with the opportunity for buyers to provide feedback scores to sellers so others could gauge their trustworthiness and quality of product.

The site used a mix of sophisticated privacy technologies to try to hide the identities of its users. Run as a Tor hidden service within the Dark Web, Silk Road’s servers were only accessible through Tor software in order to mask their IP addresses and physical location. Transactions were carried out using bitcoin due to the pseudonymity it affords. Buyers and sellers guides were available on the website to assist in using the technology without detection.

Officially the FBI insists that Ulbricht made mistakes which allowed detectives to uncover his identity and location. The subsequent sites that attempted to follow in its wake were brought down through similar mistakes. But the evidence and explanations given by the FBI in court were not convincing, leading to rumours that the FBI used malware or enlisted the NSA to help track down Silk Road and its users within Tor.

Technological fall-out

It is already known that Tor users are vulnerable at the point that traffic enters and exits the Tor network. Generally though it is thought that users cannot be tracked within the network – but if there is some basis to the speculation that the FBI used malware or enlisted the help of the NSA to bring down the Silk Road then it may be possible that to identify the real internet IP addresses associated with Tor traffic. Certainly this would put an end to any chances of a new Silk Road, and it would also inevitably lead to prosecution of much of the other illegal activity that goes on within the Deep Web. On the other hand, the lack of moves by law enforcement suggests this may not be the case.

You have to go far to find somewhere that accepts bitcoin. Targaryen, CC BY-SA

The limits to the anonymity afforded by bitcoin has also been highlighted. While the value of bitcoins remains within the blockchain, the anonymity persists. But for the owner of bitcoins to realise their value, they must be spent or transferred through exchanges into real-world currency – at which point the owner is liable to be traced. Once a wallet ID has been linked to an individual bitcoin, transactions become highly traceable, as all transactions involving that ID are viewable on the public ledger. This is why governments are choosing to regulate to bitcoin through digital exchanges.

Unless bitcoin becomes more readily accepted then it will be hard for criminals to avoid the temptation to cash out at digital exchanges, linking them to their ill-gotten gains. However, there may be other cryptocurrencies with the means to get around these weaknesses in the future.

So while the Silk Road and several of its immediate successors are gone, the suggestion that the technology behind these marketplaces is flawed is based on speculation that the FBI or NSA have cracked them. If the FBI’s claims that Ulbricht and Blake Benthall of “Silk Road 2.0” were caught due to their own mistakes are true, then it’s still possible for similar anonymous marketplaces to escape prosecution in the future.

Of course, in light of the severe sentence handed to Ulbricht it will depend on whether those would-be entrepreneurs with plans to found other online marketplaces have sufficient belief in the technology’s security to try their luck. So perhaps the judge’s aim in sentencing to deter others could still play a part.

How Bradley Wiggins can break cycling's toughest record

Bradley Wiggins is days away from 60 minutes of horrible pain. Sebastien Nogier/EPA, CC BY

The challenge for Bradley Wiggins is beautifully simple: complete the greatest number of laps of a velodrome track in one hour by pedalling as close as possible to the black racing line. However, the simplicity is deceptive, the pain is intense, and cycling’s hour record requires meticulous preparation in terms of equipment, training and strategy in order to have the best chance of success.

The wind can be a friend to the cyclist, but is more often the foe. This is because the power needed to overcome drag rises in proportion to the cube of velocity, so at 50kmph, more than 90% of the rider’s power output is spent fighting the wind.

A skilled road racer can use the wind to their advantage by slipstreaming to save energy before choosing the prime moment to attack, but when the rider is alone against the clock there is no place to hide. This is why the time-trial is known as the “race of truth” and the hour record, which is held under relatively stable conditions in a velodrome, is possibly the perfect time-trial.

Marginal gains

Alex Dowsett is the current holder of the hour record in a year which has seen a glut of attempts after the sport’s governing body eased back on the rules. On May 2, Dowsett rode to a remarkable distance of 52.937km (Wiggins is targeting 55.250km).

I was lucky enough to help construct the training plan which got Alex there, and the experience offers up some useful insights into just what it takes.

And 52.937 km later, you get to celebrate. Alex Dowsett on the Manchester velodrome. Chris Keller-Jackson

Since Francesco Moser’s successful attempt in 1984 (51.151 km) when he adopted a special skinsuit, disc wheels and low-profile frame, aerodynamics have featured prominently in the technical preparation. People may remember the intriguing battle between Graeme Obree and Chris Boardman as they traded blows over the record and adopted a range of startling on-bike positions in the pursuit of aerodynamic advantage.

Current rules on equipment and riding position are still strict, so any gains come from refinements that take many hours of wind tunnel testing. But they can be found.

Even something as simple as the skinsuit and socks underwent numerous redesigns for Alex‘s attempt to ensure the fabric and fit produced minimal drag. In fact every possible trick of engineering and physics was afforded Alex from the use of custom aero equipment like the disc wheels, frame, handlebars and helmet through to the use of low viscosity lubricants and ceramic bearings.

We even estimated that by heating the velodrome to 28-29 degrees celsius, the reduction in air density and subsequent drag would more than compensate for any loss of performance due to dehydration – although he did still take the precaution of precooling with an ice jacket.

Easing off

Training for the hour is pretty similar to tuning an engine. The key to effective physical preparation is to ensure the training is correctly sequenced and monitored to optimise gains in fitness whilst avoiding overtraining. By employing mostly high volume endurance riding with regular intense intervals and carefully timed races, Alex’s fitness was systematically developed with the goal of generating greater power output for the same blood lactate concentration and heart rate.

However, improvements are often masked by accumulated fatigue so a taper was employed prior to the event whereby training load, but not intensity, was reduced to help recovery without compromising fitness. In spite of research, tapering is still very much an art with many cyclists under-performing if they feel “too fresh”: sometimes as a coach you really can be too good.

Looking for a smart start. Kenneth Lu, CC BY

The hour record is an aerobic event, in fact the intake of air is pretty crucial you might say. But it also demands a significant contribution from those anaerobic Type II muscle fibres which don’t get their energy from oxygen and which are engaged at the tortuous start when the rider is trying to churn a massive gear into life.

Theory states that provided the athlete maintains an even pacing strategy at a power output where heart rate, oxygen uptake and blood lactate concentration remain close to a steady state, then the maximum speed should be achieved. Not only is this sweet spot difficult to judge, but the hour record is raced from a standing start that threatens to immediately over-tax the anaerobic systems which tire quickly. The dilemma for Wiggins will be the same as for every hour record racer: go out too slow and valuable speed is lost; too fast and you are plunged into an oxygen deficit that takes dozens of laps to repay.

The precise mechanisms of fatigue are hotly debated in the literature but what we do know is that as time passes any theoretical steady state is lost: fuel is burnt, chemicals build up which contribute to exhaustion, water is lost and heat accumulates.

The postural muscles throughout the body which maintain the rider’s unnatural aerodynamic position struggle under the strain of high cornering forces and the fixed wheel becomes an instrument of torture with no break from the relentless rhythm of pedalling – there is no freewheeling relief on a track bike. There is some respite as the bike accelerates through each bend, but this is accompanied by an abrupt drop in speed at the start of the following straight. Consequently, the perception of effort rises and the rider’s willpower to continue and ability to hold the line are tested.

Pace planning

And so to the biggest deception of all. During the opening 20 minutes the pace is easily manageable with the freshness of the taper, the warm air, the full aero package and low friction components. The speed is “free” and the temptation to ride too fast is great: many have. The previous record holder, Australia’s Rohan Dennis (52.491km), almost paid the price of an ambitious start to slow significantly later on. And it is not hard to pick out Jack Bobridge’s failed attempt from the chart below.

Comparing the pacing. How the riders have approached this year’s Hour record attempts. B Xavier Disley, PhD

Alex’s hour on the other hand was well-drilled with the pace rehearsed over thousands of training laps. He rode to a strict schedule, never going too deep, never accumulating a debt he could not repay. And in the last third of the race, confident that he had budgeted wisely, he attacked Dennis’s record.

Highlights of Rohan Dennis' record ride.

Was his a “perfect hour” as it was dubbed by his sponsors, or was it too respectful? Maybe it was the euphoria of success, but Alex didn’t show the usual signs of exhaustion at the finish, even lifting his bike above his head in celebration. What is for certain is that Wiggins, having openly pledged to set a record that will stand for many years, cannot afford to hold anything back, not even in the first 20 minutes.