Connecting animals to the cloud could help predict earthquakes

Did you feel that? Brian Collins/USFWS/flickr, CC BY

The recent earthquake in Nepal demonstrated yet again how difficult it is to reliably predict natural disasters. While we have a good knowledge of the various earthquakes zones on the planet, we have no way of knowing exactly when a big quake like the 7.8-magnitude event in Nepal will happen.

But we know that many animals seem able to sense the onset of such events. We could use powerful computers to monitor herds of animals and make use of their natural instincts to provide forewarning of natural disasters.

Immediately before an earthquake, herds of animals often start to behave strangely – for example suddenly leaving their homes to seek shelter. This could be because they detect small, fast-travelling waves or because they sense chemical changes in ground water from an impending earthquake.

Although there are possibilities here, we certainly need more studies – because it’s difficult to find statistically significant links between unusual animal behaviour and impending disasters. This is because natural disasters occur relatively rarely and it’s hard to reliably interpret animal behaviour after the fact. In fact, this uncertainty was quoted by the Chinese government after reports that zoo animals behaved strangely before the Wenchuan earthquake a few years ago.

Animal whispering software is needed

There are areas where we know beyond doubt that animals have accurate detection ability, for example the way dogs can spot signs of cancer that we otherwise have difficulty recognising. We also know that by giving them animal-centred interfaces we can provide them the means to express what they detect, for example by hitting the right buttons according to their judgement.

This is an example of providing animals with accessible technology that supports their natural behaviour, while also translating their behaviour into something we can understand.

Of course, a key difference between a dog who is detecting cancer and a swarm of birds that is responding to the early signs of an imminent quake is in the numbers involved. We would expect an upcoming earthquake to affect many individuals at the same time, which would amplify the effect.

Collecting data in large quantities – while at the same time being able to recognise and filter background noise – requires efficient and elastic cloud computation. However, we already have technology that can do this, something we’ve previously suggested could be used to track the course of large numbers of aircraft.

Don’t you dare put a microchip on me! Dave Huth, CC BY

So the bigger question is how to record data from large groups of animals, capitalising on advances in the Internet of Things, without affecting the welfare of the animals and without interfering with their natural behaviour.

Research has shown that putting sensors such as biotelemetric devices on animals can have seriously detrimental effects on their welfare, change their behaviour and, by doing so, invalidate whatever data is collected. Of course, trying to fit sensors to large numbers of animals for generation after generation would be highly impractical.

A better option would be to monitor changes in the animals' behaviour around their habitats via ambient sensors such as motion detectors. The data could be used to automatically detect any deviation from normal behavioural patterns.

Herdsourcing

The “wisdom of crowds” has been put to use through the practice of crowdsourcing, where the internet is used to bring together a large, diverse range of users in order to undertake a certain task. For example, analysing Wikipedia documents, conducting citizen science projects, or generating cash through crowd-sourcing.

This is exactly that kind of concept we need to extend to animals in order to watch for collective changes in their behaviour. The technology of cloud computing, which can elastically scale to the amount of computation needed for such a project, is already commercially available.

The groundwork for the kind of system we need has been carried out as part of an ongoing security research programme. This project designs cloud-based software systems to recognise and adapt to changes that may have safety and security consequences.

Applied to the task of monitoring collective animal behaviour, the system could use sensors to detect big groups of animals in specific areas, monitor the speed and shape of their movement, or detect variations in their calls or cries. Of course, a major consideration would have to be to ensure the data is secure, so that for example it couldn’t be used to cause the animals harm (for example, through poaching).

We could apply approaches typically used for human-computer interfaces to animals; designing the means to do so for animals might shed light on how to predict earthquakes – not only that but it could show that there are plenty of other things we can find out from animals too, if only we can learn how to do it.

Russian spacecraft falling to Earth poses no danger – we have survived bigger objects

The relatively light spacecraft that is now spinning out of control. Roscosmos Press Service/EPA

A Russian spacecraft is spinning uncontrollably around Earth after it broke down travelling to the International Space Station with food and fuel supplies. The vessel, Progress M-27M, will burn up when re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere in a week or two, although there is a small chance that parts of it could crash down on the planet. The risk to us humans is minute – we have survived far greater objects falling back towards Earth before.

The six people currently at the ISS are not in any great danger of running out of food either, as the next supply vessel is scheduled to dock at the ISS on June 19 – long before its current food supply is due to run out in September.

The problem with Progress

Progress M-27M launched on April 28 but soon started developing some serious problems. It was not inserted into the correct orbit and ended up in what was described as an “emergency state” when detaching from the rocket used to bring it into orbit. It has only been able to establish limited communication and control with the ground.

Progress breaks down and starts tumbling. NASA.

At the moment the module is in a low safe orbit that does not endanger any other satellites or the ISS. The module was designed to burn up in high atmosphere after supplying the ISS and being filled with rubbish from the station.

As long as the engineers in Russia manage to control its path there should be no danger of the vessel reaching Earth’s surface. The problem is that since there is very limited control of the vessel at the moment, there might be a slim chance that some parts of the craft might not fully burn up. Because the majority of out planet is filled with oceans and sparsely populated areas, the probability of parts actually hitting people is tiny, however the risk cannot be reliably calculated at the moment since the trajectory of the time of re-entry is not yet clear. But if the conditions are the same as were for NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, which fell back to Earth in September 2011, the probability of hitting any human would be one in 3,200.

A more pressing matter might be that the six-person ISS crew run out of food. However, not only is the next supply vessel DragonX scheduled to dock at the ISS on June 19, there will also be a larger Japanese supply vessel arriving in mid-August. In the worst case scenario of no supply reaching the station, the ISS astronauts would run out of food by September 5, with a system of rationing in place from July 24. Water would run out by mid-September. Handily, the ISS has a permanently docked module that would allow the team to return safely to Earth. So overall the crew has only to put up with a delay in delivery of equipment and supplies.

Lessons from the past

Looking back into history there have been far greater objects re-entering Earth’s atmosphere and we have survived such events without tidal waves occurring or being cast into a nuclear winter. The 150-tonne MIR space station burnt up in 2001. The result? A few tourists on the remote Fiji islands captured some nice holiday snaps of fragments and heard sonic booms. The 77-tonne Skylab re-entered 1979 over the Indian Ocean without much ado. The Progress module weighs in at only approximately ten tonnes and none of its material is classed as dangerous. Therefore issues as arising from the Cosmos 954 crash in Canada in 1977 with radioactive debris is not expected either.

We survived MIR crashing – and it was way bigger! NASA

The main lesson learnt from this incident is that when it comes to space flight and even unmanned supply missions you always have to plan for the unexpected. The next step would be now a detailed analysis of why Progress failed, especially since the rocket and module are similar to the ones used for manned missions carried out by the Russians. If it takes too long to establish the cause, it might cause a delay to the next scheduled Russian manned mission on May 26.

The problem also shows why international collaboration is essential for ensuring the safety of the ISS crew and the successful performance of a space station – and why these ties should be strengthened for future space ventures.

Making ISPs enforce age checks for porn puts responsibility where it might actually count

Too hot to handle, for children. hot stuff by Smolina Marianna/shutterstock.com

David Cameron’s desire to see ISPs tackle the availability of pornography to children has prompted some to ask at what point restrictions become an infringement of liberty.

The Conservative Party introduced legislation in 2014 that compelled UK ISPs to provide parental controls, presenting the bill-payer with a choice to block or allow pornographic content. Major ISPs such as BT, Virgin, TalkTalk and Sky have introduced these features, although according to Ofcom figures few households take up the option to use them.

The culture secretary, Sajid Javid, has declared that, if re-elected, the Conservative Party would take steps to regulate overseas ISPs as well as those based in the UK, requiring strong age-restriction controls based on credit card checks or by sharing passport or driving licence details through special software.

There seem to be three objections to this stronger approach to age-verification. First, that responsibility for preventing children’s access to pornography lies with parents not the state. Second, the concern around using identification that would create a direct link between an identifiable person and their viewing habits. And third, that the requirement for this identification would be likely to have an effect on the industry. For example, visits to free-to-view sites would be affected if viewers are put off by the need to use credit card identification more than pay sites (which require a credit card anyway).

There is also the fact that most, if not all, restrictions can be circumvented by anyone with sufficient technological knowledge – which often includes children. This is held up as a reason not to take steps that, despite having eroded our freedoms and privacy, won’t even be effective.

I’d argue that the relationship between new technologies, sexuality and human rights is a serious issue for advanced liberal democracies. The balancing act required between rights and responsibilities needs our collective attention. The question I am concerned with is whose sexual freedoms and rights does a neo-liberal approach embodied by these objections set out to advance?

Social control vs sexual freedom

Perhaps the major ethical issue that lies behind attempts to restrict access to pornography is the sexualisation of children through pornography. Much internet pornography is extreme, violent and profoundly degrading of women. Research has found that both young boys' and young girls' exposure to it is linked to beliefs that women are sex objects and to negative – and even fearful – attitudes towards sex.

‘Raunch culture’ is everywhere. x1brett

The question that should be asked in my view is not whether regulation of access to pornography is technologically viable, but whether leaving that responsibility to parents is viable. The current filtering technology is almost ineffective in preventing children from accessing pornography, however responsible and rigorous the parent. However rigorous parents may be with their own computers, it’s possible their child may access it either through their mobile phones or through devices belonging to other children whose parents have not opted to impose filters. So to suggest that the problem of children’s exposure to hardcore internet pornography can be overcome by individual parents and families is a red herring.

The “free” pornography sites that might be affected are not of course free, since they depend for their revenue on inducing consumers to pay for services. To whom would the damage occur if free pornography sites are affected as result of the proposed regulation? Should we extend our sympathy to the multi-billion dollar pornography industry for a potential loss of their income?

In any case, would the new regulation increase surveillance of our private habits any more than the myriad current online surveillance practices to which we are already subject, whether voluntarily or involuntarily? If adult use of pornography is harm-free, as its proponents claim, what has the user got to fear with regard to his own sexual predilections? Does the fear of surveillance say more about the guilt attached to consuming pornography than it does the chances of illegitimate government interference and control?

If we are adults, then let us be adults

I’d argue that, in weighing up the costs and benefits of social regulation which any liberal democratic government on the left or right is compelled to consider, regulating ISPs with regard to age restriction would, on the whole, increase freedom rather than restrict it.

It will help stay the pornography industry’s influence on children’s and young people’s sexual imaginations, identities and practices – and if adults then feel some shame because they can no longer be completely anonymous in their pornography-viewing habits then at least it is they as adults – and not the children – who will have to process their conflicted sexual emotions.

As well as the right to “adult” interests and a sexual life, isn’t learning to handle complicated feelings part of what being an adult means?

After years of talk, a regulator is willing to take on Google

In Monopol-e-Commerce, who plays the hat, and who gets the boot? danielbroche, CC BY

The European Commission’s decision to charge Google with abuse of its dominant market position in the search business in order to favour its own services has been criticised as too narrow in focus, too superficial for not dealing with the bigger problem of digital competition, ill-conceived for messing with the market, or not focused on the real problem of who owns our personal data.

While these are valid criticisms in their own way, they miss the most important point – that legal action has been taken at all. Whatever the result, this is a seismic and seminal move.

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) flirted with legal action in 2012 but withdrew, despite the conclusions of an leaked internal investigation that found that Google had “unlawfully maintained its monopoly over general search and search advertising”.

The European Commission worked closely with the FTC on its investigation and, like the FTC, decided against launching action by 2013. Joaquin Almunia, head of the European Competition Commission between 2010 and 2014, tried and failed to reach acceptable negotiated settlements with Google on three occasions. But his successor, Margrethe Vestager, has chosen action over discussion.

When the FTC launched an antitrust case against Microsoft in 1998 it dragged on for years, cost the organisation huge amounts of money and effort, and arguably opened up the space for Google to expand and eat much of Microsoft’s lunch. As journalist Charles Arthur writes in his book Digital Wars, the FTC’s action had a devastating impact on Microsoft’s self-esteem and “reached into the company’s soul”.

The case against Microsoft also shows why the FTC and the commission were reticent to launch a case against Google. It was legally and technologically complex, with courts struggling to apply 19th century antitrust law to the digital 21st century. Many people ended up dissatisfied with the result.

Hurdles could trip up either side

The case against Google has the potential to be even more complex and legally challenging. To demonstrate Google has abused its dominance the commission may need to call upon economists, engineers, investigative journalists and perhaps even sociologists.

It will need to define the markets in which Google acts. General search may be a relatively established market, but what about vertical search, or social search? It will need to translate competition law to a digital environment, to understand how algorithms work, and the extent to which Google’s algorithms favour the company, and to show evidence of abuse. It will also need to establish whether Google’s actions have damaged “consumer welfare”.

The European Commission will need to do all this while being intensively lobbied by some of the world’s largest and most powerful corporations, for example through the Microsoft-sponsored Initiative for a Competitive Online Marketplace (ICOMP).

It’s not a great surprise, therefore, that the commission is charging Google on narrow grounds, in this case on favouring its own comparison shopping product. Shopping ought to be relatively low-hanging fruit: a reasonably well-defined market that Google has tried (unsuccessfully) to enter on more than one occasion with previous products Froogle, Google Product Search, and Google Shopping. There are a number of vocal, disgruntled competitors such as Yelp, Expedia and TripAdvisor. And there is evidence upon which to build a case, compiled by the commission and the FTC since 2010.

The commission hopes that by narrowly focusing its action in the first instance it can create a precedent from which to build. It has already signalled where it may go next, having announced a formal investigation into Android, Google’s mobile operating system, on the same day. Concerns over Google’s web content scraping and its exclusivity agreements with advertising partners have also been highlighted as potential areas of inquiry.

Legal ramifications

Whichever way the result falls, the repercussions will be pivotal. If the commission wins it will create a precedent with which the commission may choose to take on the dominance of other digital giants such as Amazon and Facebook. It may also trigger action by other governments and private actions. For Google it could lead to a crisis of confidence and loss of market lead similar to that experienced by Microsoft.

The consequences could be even more significant if the commission loses. Some will see it as evidence of the unchallengeable power of the global tech titans. Some will see it as confirmation that the legal action was merely European anger at US tech success. Few other democratic governments will be likely to take up cudgels and follow the commission’s lead.

However, the most likely result is that Google will settle. Though, as has been pointed out in reference to previous attempts to negotiate with the firm Google, settlements could create a precedent too, which could make it difficult in the future to pursue Google for anti-competitive behaviour in one field having settled for the same in another.

In his landmark book The Master Switch, Tim Wu outlined the stages of each information cycle. First a period of openness characterised by innovation, entrepreneurship and relative confusion. Then consolidation, in which a small number of organisations grow dominant. And finally monopolisation of markets – and often subsequent government intervention. For the web, the commission’s antitrust action against Google may well signify the start of the final stage of the cycle.

Reducing science to sensational headlines too often misses the bigger picture

"This theory complex but important and -- hey look, it's Kim Kardashian!" Ed Schipul , CC BY

We are all being lied to, but it’s okay because we sort of know it. Exaggeration, sensationalism and hype are in the newspaper headlines and on the magazine covers we read and in the films we watch. Even the conversations we have with each other are exaggerated to make things sound that little bit more interesting. But what happens when you try to sensationalise science, and put little lies into something that revolves around truth?

The role of science in society is changing. Science is now in the mainstream, with “science editors” commonplace. But the little lies are creeping into science, designed to sensationalise, to entertain, to generate clicks online, to sell newspapers, and to make science sexy.

Missing the point

The best way to illustrate this problem is with an example. There is an ambitious idea called the Skylon project, essentially a rocket plane. Rocket planes are an excellent way to get to space, but building an engine is difficult. However, Skylon recently achieved this with their SABRE engine. This was widely reported with headlines tending toward the likes of “Now Possible to Get to Australia in Four Hours”.

In order to understand why that is important, a little context: rockets are a terrible way of getting to space. Large rockets weigh close to 1,000 tonnes, yet can only carry around ten tonnes of payload into orbit. Worse, most of that rocket gets crashed into the ocean in the process, and those rockets aren’t cheap.

Imagine if every time you took a flight you had to pay for the entire cost of the aircraft – ticket prices would go up, and the number of aircraft available would go down. The Skylon rocket plane is the first, completely reusable way of getting into space. This means in comparison to non-reusable rockets, rocket planes such as Skylon would hugely increase capacity and availability of flights and lower the cost of flying people and cargo into space. Everyone who could afford to buy a sports car could now afford to go to space.

The Wright Brothers first flight. CC BY

Getting lost in the headline

Yet all the reporting of Skylon’s new engine chose to focus on the idea that it would be possible to fly from one side of the world to another in hours. Sure it’s attention grabbing, but it misses the point. It’s like being alive in 1903. At this point in time, the only way to fly was with a balloon or glider. Then the Wright brothers invent powered flight. With the ambitions of many from Icarus to Leonardo da Vinci finally realised and mankind able to take to the skies, it would be absurd to report it with the headline: “Now Possible to Get to the Shops in 30 Seconds”.

We all know that powered flight changed the world. A century after the Wright brothers' breakthrough, two billion people and 40m tonnes of cargo were transported that year alone. Just 110 years later Voyager 1 would become the first man-made object to leave the solar system entirely.

Think about that. Only a century after we worked out how to take off from the ground, we managed to leave the solar system. And you’re telling me that the most interesting part of the SABRE engine is that you can get to Australia in four hours? No. Not even close. We are potentially ushering in a whole new era of human existence.

Yet somehow this message gets lost in the sensationalising of the world around us. Modern society has become obsessed with short-term gains and creating the illusion of progress and achievement. That is why popular media is full of these little lies and it is why we are trying to make science sexy.

Tracy Caldwell Dyson viewing Earth from the ISS Cupola, 2010. WikiCommons

Beauty is in the bigger picture

But when you make science sexy you lose the beauty, and there is tremendous beauty in science. That beauty is hope. Science is the hope of a future. Because if we just sit here on this planet and do the things we already do, getting places just a little bit faster, living just a little bit longer, happy to simply survive as we are then we know how humanity’s journey ends – and it will end, here, on this planet.

But if we do more than survive; if we discover and explore and expand, then our future is uncertain. Science is a demonstration that humanity need not exist only on some tiny rock in the outer spiral arm of a single galaxy. To me, it means that humanity refused to go gently into that good night. Will it make it? Who knows – but it’s important that we try.

Bridge may be a sport but the brain definitely isn't a muscle

A judge European Bridge League/flickr, CC BY-SA

This week a High Court judge opened the way for the card game bridge to be classified as a sport under English law. Recalling his own bridge-playing experience, Justice Mostyn recognised claims that the game could be recognised as a “mind sport” that exercises the “brain muscle”. He also stated that the game involves more physical activity than rifle shooting.

The case was brought by the English Bridge Union, which wants bridge to be classified as a sport in the hope the group would qualify for Sport England lottery funding, and a full judicial review has been awarded.

Given that chess is recognised by the International Olympic Committee as a sport, the union’s claim may not be as unlikely as it appears. But the judge’s views were misguided.

The brain is not a muscle, it is an organ. It does not contain any muscle cells (which can be smooth, striated or cardiac) and it is incapable of contraction and dilation from central nervous system signals.

Increased cerebral activity will elevate glucose metabolism in the brain, but this will have negligible affects on the body’s overall energy balance or consequential physical health benefits. Any benefits of this kind are often negated by the typical consumption of snacks and beverages during the activity.

Brain plasticity research has demonstrated the capacity of the brain to develop new neurons throughout life when exposed to mentally challenging tasks. This means improvement of cognition is possible at any age. This activity can even reverse cognitive decline and delay the onset of dementia. In other words, the idea that you should “use it or lose it” is true.

Unlike bridge, rifle shooting has demonstrated physical benefits. North Carolina National Guard/flickr, CC BY-ND

In its defence, Sport England referred to the Council of Europe’s definition of sport: “Sport means all forms of physical activity which, through casual or organised participation, aim at expressing or improving physical fitness and mental well-being, forming social relationships obtaining results in competition at all levels”.

It is not difficult to see that bridge fails to tick the boxes referring to physical activity and fitness. Yet the judge insisted that the dealing and playing of bridge requires greater physical activity than that of rifle shooting. From this I assume he meant the dynamic arm movement of selecting and placing cards onto a table (and possibly toilet breaks?), versus the static contraction of holding a rifle to take the desired shots.

Maybe Justice Mostyn has a point, but as yet there is no evidence to prove the physical benefits of bridge, unlike rifle shooting, which has demonstrated increased skeletal muscle activity. Critically, the physical activity required to take the rifle shot will determine its accuracy, whereas the speed and accuracy of placing cards on a table bears no relationship to the performance outcome.

However, we are now into the pedantic world of legal definitions. Jaffa Cakes succeeded in being classified as a cake as opposed to a biscuit for the sake of lower taxation, so maybe bridge could be classified as a sport.

One thing is for certain: this topic will always make for an interesting debate at the bar, even during the sport of darts. I’ve heard an alternative definition: “A sport should only be considered such when it necessitates the changing of shoes.” Maybe the Council of Europe should adopt this instead.

Discovery of microbe-rich groundwater in Antarctica could guide our search for life in space

It's the inside that counts. Eli Duke/flickr, CC BY-SA

Scientists have discovered salty groundwater underneath the dry valleys of Antarctica that is buzzing with microbial life. As the valleys are geologically similar to what Mars was like in the past, the discovery could help us understand what life on the red planet could have looked like. It could also help us search for life elsewhere in the solar system, such as on the icy moons surrounding Jupiter and Saturn.

The dry valleys west of McMurdo Sound are some of the most geologically intriguing regions of Antarctica. While we know a lot about their geology and surface hydrology, we have little understanding about what is happening beneath the glaciers and lakes. However, the new study, published in Nature Communications, has revealed that a large, inter-connected series of flowing ground-water streams lurks underneath the glaciers, lakes and permafrost.

Moreover, this ground-water system is home to a variety of microbial life feeding off the rich mineralogy of the environment. This could be micro-organisms that produce energy by chemical reactions involving iron and sulphur, for instance sulphur-reducing bacteria.

Salty surprise

The groundwater is very salty, containing a number of chemicals dissolved from sediments which were once many metres below sea level. The levels of salt, sodium chloride, are indeed very similar to ocean water. The salty water also explains the distinct red colour of the wonderfully named, Blood Falls, which lies at the foot of the Taylor Glacier to west of the valleys, where it mixes with iron and oxygen.

The creepy, iron-rich Blood Falls National Science Foundation/Peter Rejcek

The discovery was made by shining a sensor on the ground, which measures the electromagnetic resistance of the material beneath. This allowed the team to distinguish between salt-containing sediments and frozen, ice-bound layers. Strikingly, they discovered that the salty ground-water system extends throughout large parts of the valleys, extending from the coast to at least 7.5 miles inland in the valleys.

A guide to extra-terrestrial life?

Reasonably, the authors make the connection between the microbial habitat and similar geological environments that may have existed once on Mars. This link has been made many times before, recently by by NASA’s Curiosity Rover at Gale Crater.

Liquid water is essential for life and it is therefore a major driver for astrobiology. It can be found in many different types of geological environment, locked within microscopic cavities of minerals or encased in ice. Surprisingly, life can actually exist in such extreme environments, within certain limits. Moreover, metals – such as the iron and magnesium that were found in this study – are also crucial to driving the chemical processes of living, as they are found at the heart of many key enzymes.

While it is not a “smoking gun” for the existence of life elsewhere in the universe, the present study reminds us what we should be looking for.

Could similar microbial life as that found in Anatarctica be found on Mimas? NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute

Cosmic candidates

It is possible that liquid, salty water underneath the vast ice sheets of other solar system bodies such as Saturn’s moons Enceladus and Mimas; Jupiter’s moon Ganymede or even Neptune’s moon Triton could hold similar microbial life. Underneath thick layers of ice, such water would be protected from potentially damaging cosmic rays, harmful radiation, meaning life there would be relatively safe.

Identified as part of Scott’s Discovery science mission of 1901-4, the McMurdo Dry Valleys were explored in greater detail during Scott’s second, fateful, Terra Nova expedition of 1910-13. Little did they know back then that their discoveries had the potential to one day inform missions to space.